A. INTRODUCTION When building statistical models, the goal is to define a compact and parsimonious mathematical representation of some data generating process. Many of these techniques require that one make assumptions about the data or how the analysis is specified. For example, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models require that the time series is … Continue reading Semiparametric Regression in R
A. Motivation During the recent RStudio Conference, an attendee asked the panel about the lack of support provided by the tidyverse in relation to time series data. As someone who has spent the majority of their career on time series problems, this was somewhat surprising because R already has a great suite of tools for … Continue reading Packages for Getting Started with Time Series Analysis in R
A markov model can be used to examine a stochastic process describing a sequence of possible events in which the probability of each event depends only on the state attained in the previous event. Let’s define a stochastic process that takes on a finite number of possible values which are nonnegative integers. Each state, , represents it’s value … Continue reading Examining Website Pathing Data Using Markov Chains
Let’s face it, a good statistics refresher is always worthwhile. There are times we all forget basic concepts and calculations. Therefore, I put together a document that could act as a statistics refresher and thought that I’d share it with the world. This is part one of a two part document that is still being completed. This refresher … Continue reading Statistics Refresher
Given a data frame with multiple columns which contain time series data, let’s say that we are interested in executing an automatic forecasting algorithm on a number of columns. Furthermore, we want to train the model on a particular number of observations and assess how well they forecast future values. Based upon those testing procedures, … Continue reading Batch Forecasting in R
For those of us who received statistical training outside of statistics departments, it often emphasized procedures over principles. This entailed that we learned about various statistical techniques and how to perform analysis in a particular statistical software, but glossed over the mechanisms and mathematical statistics underlying these practices. While that training methodology (hereby referred to … Continue reading Statistical Reading Rainbow
Lets say that we estimated a linear regression model on time series data with lagged predictors. The goal is to estimate sales as a function of inventory, search volume, and media spend from two months ago. After using the lm function to perform linear regression, we predict sales using values from two month ago. If … Continue reading Weekly R-Tips: Visualizing Predictions
This is part two of the ‘applied statistical theory’ series that will cover the bare essentials of various statistical techniques. As analysts, we need to know enough about what we’re doing to be dangerous and explain approaches to others. It’s not enough to say “I used X because the misclassification rate was low.” Standard linear … Continue reading Applied Statistical Theory: Quantile Regression
Applied statistical theory is a new series that will cover the basic methodology and framework behind various statistical procedures. As analysts, we need to know enough about what we’re doing to be dangerous and explain approaches to others. It’s not enough to say “I used X because the misclassification rate was low.” At the same … Continue reading Applied Statistical Theory: Belief Networks
Forecasting refers to the process of using statistical procedures to predict future values of a time series based on historical trends. For businesses, being able gauge expected outcomes for a given time period is essential for managing marketing, planning, and finances. For example, an advertising agency may want to utilizes sales forecasts to identify which … Continue reading Basic Forecasting
Mathew Analytics 